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Discontinuity, Nonlinearity, and Complexity

Dimitry Volchenkov (editor), Dumitru Baleanu (editor)

Dimitry Volchenkov(editor)

Mathematics & Statistics, Texas Tech University, 1108 Memorial Circle, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA

Email: dr.volchenkov@gmail.com

Dumitru Baleanu (editor)

Cankaya University, Ankara, Turkey; Institute of Space Sciences, Magurele-Bucharest, Romania

Email: dumitru.baleanu@gmail.com


Application of the Hydromechanical Model for a Description of Tropical Cyclones Motion

Discontinuity, Nonlinearity, and Complexity 4(3) (2016) 271--279 | DOI:10.5890/DNC.2016.09.005

Boris Shmerlin; Mikhail Shmerlin

Federal State Budgetary Institution “Research and Production Association Typhoon”, 4 Pobedy street, 249038 Obninsk Kaluga region, Russia

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Abstract

Within the framework of the hydromechanical model (HMM), proposed by one of the authors, a tropical cyclone (TC) motion is defined by a largescale wind field and a TC intensity. The model contains parameters describing TC and its interaction with wind field. The diagnostic, quasi-prognostic and prognostic calculations of TC movement are carried out. Diagnostic and quasi-prognostic calculations mean that an objective analysis of a large scale wind field and an objective analysis of a TC intensity is used during a TC whole lifetime. In case of diagnostic calculations, model parameters (constants for each TC) are defined from the best coincidence between the real and calculated track of a TC during a TC whole lifetime; for quasiprognostic calculations they are defined during the preliminary “preprognostic” period. Diagnostic calculations show that the HMMrather correctly describes peculiarities of a TC motion. Quasi-prognostic calculations show that model parameters may be rather correctly defined during a preliminary “preprognostic” period. The results of the diagnostic, quasi-prognostic and prognostic calculations are presented.

References

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