---

Discontinuity, Nonlinearity, and Complexity 4(3) (2015) 271--279 | DOI:10.5890/DNC.2015.09.005

Boris Shmerlin; Mikhail Shmerlin

Federal State Budgetary Institution “Research and Production Association Typhoon”, 4 Pobedy street, 249038 Obninsk Kaluga region, Russia

Download Full Text PDF

 

Abstract

Within the framework of the hydromechanical model (HMM), proposed by one of the authors, a tropical cyclone (TC) motion is defined by a largescale wind field and a TC intensity. The model contains parameters describing TC and its interaction with wind field. The diagnostic, quasi-prognostic and prognostic calculations of TC movement are carried out. Diagnostic and quasi-prognostic calculations mean that an objective analysis of a large scale wind field and an objective analysis of a TC intensity is used during a TC whole lifetime. In case of diagnostic calculations, model parameters (constants for each TC) are defined from the best coincidence between the real and calculated track of a TC during a TC whole lifetime; for quasiprognostic calculations they are defined during the preliminary “preprognostic” period. Diagnostic calculations show that the HMMrather correctly describes peculiarities of a TC motion. Quasi-prognostic calculations show that model parameters may be rather correctly defined during a preliminary “preprognostic” period. The results of the diagnostic, quasi-prognostic and prognostic calculations are presented.

References

1. [1]	Chan, J.C.L. (2005), The physics of tropical cyclone motion, Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 37, 99-128.

2. [2]	Dong, K. (1986), The relationship between tropical cyclone motion and environmental geostrophic flows, Mon. Wea. Rev., 114(1), 115-122.

3. [3]	Shmerlin, B.Ya. (1981), A study of patterns in the movement of large scale vortices relative to the pure zonal flow, Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, No. 7, 27-35 (in Russian). (Engl. Transl. Soviet Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 7-12.)

4. [4]	Shmerlin, B.Ya. (1987), Some investigations of TC's trajectories stability within the framework of the hydromechanical model, in Tropical meteorology. Proceedings of the third international symposium, eds. U.S. Sedunov, et al. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 292-307 (in Russian).

5. [5]	Shmerlin, B.Ya. (1989), On confirmation of adequacy of the hydromechanical model of a tropical cyclone motion, in Tropical meteorology. Proceedings of the fourth international symposium, eds. V.M. Zakharov, et al. Gidrometizdat, Leningrad, 179-186 (in Russian).

6. [6]

   Shmerlin, B.Ya., et al. (2004), Diagnostic calculations of a TCs motion in the 2001 year season within the framework of the hydromechanical model, in The International Conference MSS-04 Mode Conversion, Coherent Structures and Turbulence. 23-25 November 2004. Conference Proceedings, eds. N.S. Erokhin, et al. POXOC, Moscow, 284-289 (in Russian).

7. [7]

   Shmerlin, B.Ya., et al. (2008), Quasi-prognostic calculations of a tropical cyclones motion within the frameworks of the hydromechanical model, in International conference "Fluxes and structures in fluids". St. Petersburg, Russia, July 02-05, 2007. Selected papers, eds. Yuli D. Chashechkin and Vasily G. Baydulov. IPM RAS, Moscow, 269-274 (in Russian).

8. [8]	Shmerlin, B.Ya., et al. (2009), Quasi-prognostic calculations of a tropical cyclones motion, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Journal, N 4, 67-74 (in Russian).

9. [9]	Shmerlin, B.Ya. and Shmerlin, M.B. (2011), Application of the hydromechanical model for a description of tropical cyclones motion, Vestnik of Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod, 2011, No. 4, Part 2, 564-566 (in Russian).

10. [10]	Shmerlin, B.Ya. and Shmerlin, M.B. (2012), Hydromechanical model of a tropical cyclones motion, Actual problems in remote sensing of the Earth from space, 9(2), 243-248 (in Russian).

11. [11]	Yakimov, Y.L. (1970), Motion of a cylinder in arbitrary planar ideal incompressible fluid flow, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Mekh. Zhidk. Gaza, 5(2), 202-204 (in Russian). (Engl. Transl. Fluid Dynamics, 5(2), 350-353.)

12. [12]	Petrov, A.G. (1978), Reactions acting on a small body in two-dimensional vortex flow, Doklady Akademii Nauk SSSR, 238(1), 33-35 (in Russian). (Engl. Transl. Soviet Physics-Doklady, 23(1), 18-19.)

13. [13]	Kuo, H.L. (1969),Motion of vortices and circulating cylinder in shear flow with friction, J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 390-398.

14. [14]	Jones, R.W. (1977), Vortex motion in a tropical cyclone model, J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1518-1527.

15. [15]	Batchelor, G.K. (1973), An Introduction to Fluid Dynamics, Cambridge University Press.

16. [16]	Chan, J.C. andWilliams R. (1987), Analytical and numerical studies of the Beta-Effect in tropical cyclone motion. Part 1: Zero mean flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 44(9), 1257-1265.

17. [17]	Ooyama, K. (1969), Numerical simulation of the life-cycle of tropical cyclones, J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 1-43.

18. [18]	Kalashnik, M.V. (1994), On the maximum wind velocity in the tropical cyclone, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, 30(1), 26-30 (in Russian). (Engl. Transl. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 30, 23-27.)