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ISSN:2325-6192 (print)
ISSN:2325-6206 (online)
Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management
António Mendes Lopes (editor), Jiazhong Zhang(editor)
António Mendes Lopes (editor)

University of Porto, Portugal

Email: aml@fe.up.pt

Jiazhong Zhang (editor)

School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710049, China

Fax: +86 29 82668723 Email: jzzhang@mail.xjtu.edu.cn

The METQ Model in Forecasting Agroecological Risks: Managing Runoff and Groundwater for Sustainable Land Use

Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management 14(4) (2026) 731--742 | DOI:10.5890/JEAM.2026.12.013

Anda Bakute$^{1}$, Jovita Pilecka-Ulcugaceva$^{1}$, Inga Grinfelde$^{1,2}$

$^{1}$ Faculty of Forest and Environmental Sciences, Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies, Jelgava, LV-3001, Latvia

$^{2}$ Faculty of Environmental Engeneering, Lithuanian College of Engineering, Kaunas, LT-50155, Lithuania

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Abstract

The aim of the study was to assess the potential of the conceptual hydrological model Meteorological and Environmental Tools for Quantification (METQ) to forecast agroecological risks in agricultural landscapes of Latvia, taking climate change into account. The methodology was based on modelling the water balance, groundwater level dynamics, owerland flow and nutrient transport in catchments with intensive land use, particularly in the basins of Lake Burtnieks, the River Salaca and the River Svete. The results obtained showed that a decrease in the intensity of spring snowmelt leads to a reduction in spring runoff by an average of $\mathrm{\sim}$20%, while an increase in the number of winter thaws and rain events causes an increase in winter runoff by an average of $\mathrm{\sim}$25%. This creates a dual risk for agriculture: moisture deficiency at the beginning of the growing season and seasonal flooding during the cold period. Modelling of extreme hydrological events demonstrated an increase in the surface runoff coefficient to 0.40-0.55, thereby increasing the threat of soil water erosion. Cartographic analysis identified the most vulnerable areas, mainly drained arable lands and slopes with sandy and sandy-loam soils. The study of nutrient transport revealed that during periods of spring snowmelt runoff and intense rainfall, nitrogen concentrations increase by 20-25% and phosphorus concentrations by 1.5-2 times, creating risks of eutrophication in surface water bodies. In addition, statistically significant (p$\mathrm{<}$0.05) changes in the seasonal distribution of runoff and nutrient concentrations were confirmed. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the results by agricultural producers, land reclamation services, environmental institutions and agricultural policy bodies to optimise water use, crop planning and reduce agroecological risks in Latvia.

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of LBTU for Excellence in Studies and Research (5.2.1.1.i.0/2/24/I/CFLA/002).

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