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Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management 3(1) (2015) 31--45 | DOI:10.5890/JEAM.2015.03.003

Xiaoya Deng$^{1}$, Ai-hua Long$^{1}$, Hongbo Ling$^{2}$, Mingjiang Deng$^{3}$, Shouping Zhang$^{1}$

$^{1}$ State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Engineering and Technology Research Center for Water Resources and Hydroecology of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing, 100038, China;

$^{2}$ Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment , Urumqi, 830011, China

$^{3}$ Water Resources Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, 830000, China

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Abstract

Based on the measured runoff and meteorological data over the past 50 years in the headstreams of the Tarim River, this paper not only discussed the variation characteristics of runoff and climate factors, but also analyzed the impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff by using the nonparametric test, extrapolation of variance analysis and periodic superposition trend model. Results showed that air temperature and precipitation increased significantly with the obvious abrupt change in 1993 and 1990, respectively. Surface runoff from the headstreams of the Aksu River and Yarkand River was in an increasing trend with the abrupt change in 1993, in which year the turning point of the impact of the human activities on the headstream runoff did occur as well. In Hotan River, the decreasing trend was slight, and the abrupt change was not obvious. According to the extrapolation of variance analysis, the periods of the three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkand River, and Hotan River) are 25, 23, and 24 years, respectively. The periodic superposition trend model showed that the climate change had increased the total stream flow of the mountain pass in Aksu River and Yarkand River since 1993, but in regard of the headstreams from the mountain pass to Alar, the impact of human activities on runoff was more significant than that of climate change.

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 51479209), and the Chinese Academy of Engineering Program (2014-2D-4-2). The first author thank Dr. Haifeng Gao from Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research for his assistance in analyzing the data.

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